As former President Joseph Kabila arrived in Goma, the capital of North Kivu, currently under rebel control, at the end of May, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has been actively working to neutralize Joseph Kabila’s networks in South Africa and throughout Southern Africa, particularly in Namibia, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, and Kenya.
Félix Tshisekedi pressured the Trump administration to hand over Joseph Kabila as part of a minerals-for-security agreement between the DRC and the USA. Félix Tshisekedi, who considers Joseph Kabila the leader of the Rwandan-backed M23 rebellion, simply demanded that Donald Trump pressure these Southern African countries and Kenya to neutralize Joseph Kabila or outright arrest him.
Rumors of Forced Exile: Kabila in Goma Under Rwandan Wing?
Persistent whispers are stirring political and security circles in the Democratic Republic of Congo, suggesting a rather unexpected scenario for former President Joseph Kabila. According to these conjectures, Kabila successively fled several African countries where he had sought refuge—Namibia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, and Kenya—finally finding himself forced to seek asylum in Goma, under unexpected protection: that of Rwanda.
A “Minerals for Security” Agreement in the Background?
These assumptions paint a picture of intense pressure exerted by current President Félix Tshisekedi on Kabila’s host countries. This pressure would not have been direct but would have gone through the United States. The central hypothesis behind this reversal would be a tacit, or even explicit, agreement between Kinshasa and Washington: a quid pro quo where Congolese mineral wealth would serve as leverage to guarantee the security and stability of the DRC, particularly through the neutralization of figures perceived as threatening.
In this power play, the United States, under the Trump administration (if one relies on the supposed timing of this arrangement), would have been solicited by Félix Tshisekedi to pressure Joseph Kabila’s host countries. Eswatini, Namibia, and Kenya, which could have offered the former president a haven, would thus have been forced to withdraw their hospitality in the face of American demands.
Kabila Cornered, the Choice of Goma and Rwanda
Faced with this series of refusals and the impossibility of finding stable refuge, Joseph Kabila would have been forced into a corner. Félix Tshisekedi’s insistence on Kabila’s “neutralization”—a demand formulated within the framework of the agreement with the United States—would have left few options for Kinshasa’s former strongman.
In this bold conjecture, the only way out for Joseph Kabila would have been to take refuge in Goma, a strategic city in eastern Congo, but above all, under Rwandan protection. Thus, Rwanda would consider raising the Kabila case in future peace negotiations with the DRC.
Coco Kabwika
